Self-catering booking trends 2020 to 7 August

The data for this analysis are from bookings made in SuperControl Online Booking & Management System from 01/01/2019 to 07/08/2020. The 13,431 properties in the UK and Ireland included in the analysis were live in SuperControl at least a year prior to the start of this period and were still live at the end of the period. The 619,897 bookings excluded any bookings made by the owner or zero value bookings. Values have been normalised where appropriate by dividing by the maximum value in the relevant period and group. Any interpretation relates to the properties within the data set and does not attempt to extrapolate to wider market trends.

Year on year

The plot below shows the year on year daily booking trends. Bookings were slightly down in 2020 relative to 2019 from the beginning of the year, but started to diverge significantly in mid-March. From early May there was a steady increase in bookings relative to lockdown levels. By mid-June the booking rate was higher than the same weeks in 2019, and from the 22nd June for the rest of the month daily bookings rates were up to twice the level as the same time last year. Throughout July booking rates maintained levels well above 2019, but the latest daily figures indicate that booking rates may be decreasing.

Country

The plot below shows the weekly booking trend for 2020 by country. While each country has followed a similar trajectory, the data show that booking numbers rose to the June spike first in Ireland, followed by Northern Ireland then England, Wales and Scotland. The relative difference in booking volume between the peak week in January and the recent high was largest in Ireland and smallest in Wales; with Ireland having twice as many bookings in the highest booking volume week for the year to date (i.e. 100% higher, seen in early June) and Wales having a peak week in early July only 20% above the peak week in January. However, the Welsh high weekly booking levels did maintain at a similarly high level to the peak for longer than in Ireland.

The plot below shows that the cumulative 2020 year to date bookings have not caught up with 2019 yet in any of the countries in the data set despite the higher recent booking rates, but that England is closest to doing so.

Urban rural split

The weekly year to date booking trends are shown below split by country and urban rural location. In Northern Ireland and Wales, the post-lockdown peak booking week was realised later in urban locations than rural, whereas for England and Scotland they were in the same week.

England by region

The plot below shows the year to date weekly booking trend for England by region. London saw the earliest and sharpest decline in bookings, and ultimately has fallen the furthest, with the North East also showing a relatively bigger drop to lockdown levels than other regions. The South East region has maintained its post-lockdown high booking volumes for longer than other regions, but this does not show the relative size of the peak to other regions. Relating the spike to the highest booking week in January indicates that the post-lockdown peak week in the South East was only very slightly lower than other regions relative to their respective peak January weeks (as seen by the South East January peak week having a slightly higher value than the other regions, except London whose year to date peak week was in January).

Arrivals

The heat map below shows the period from the beginning of lock down through to last week from left to right, and the corresponding arrival dates for bookings made in these weeks from top to bottom. The stronger the colour in each tile, the more bookings there were in that booking week for that arrival week. The last week shows a slight increase in bookings made for arrival in July 2021.

Length of stay

The weekly mean booked length of stay has been higher in each country since the week before lockdown began. Hence when booking levels declined and were at their lockdown low, the few bookings that were taken were on average longer bookings.

Value

The weekly mean for the day rate value of bookings taken has generally been higher since lockdown in a year on year comparison for England, Scotland and Wales. There was a temporary decrease in the week mean day rate in Ireland starting two weeks prior to lockdown and lasting for 6 weeks.

Distance

The plots below show the average distance between guest and property post code for bookings made that week. The clearest signal here is a slight and temporary increase in the average travelling distance for bookings made for Scottish properties beginning the week before lockdown. These data are only for UK and Ireland guests and properties- so do not reflect changes in overseas travel patterns.

Between country travel

The plot below shows the bookings made to the 6th August in 2020 and the same day in 2019, with the bands moving from the guest country on the left to the property country on the right. The overall height of the bars gives shows the relative number of bookings in 2020 to date relative to 2019. The dominant red bar at the top shows that the majority of bookings in the data set are for English guests booking to stay in England. The other red bands show the relative size of the domestic market to different countries from English guests. These booking patterns have not changed dramatically from 2019 to 2020.

The scatter plot below shows the same guest booking journey data as above but for detailed year on year comparison. Each sub plot relates to the properties withing that country, and each point on the subplot identifies the bookings coming from guests in the country labelled with the colour. For example the orange point in the top right corner of the top right plot identifies Irish guests booking stays in Northern Ireland. The position of the point on the subplot indicates the year on year bookings, with 2019 to date bookings on the x-axis and 2020 to date bookings on the y-axis, increasing towards the right and with height respectively. The black line indicates the same year on year booking volume; for example the number of bookings from guests in Northern Ireland for properties in Northern Ireland is (25%) higher for 2020 than it was for 2019 to date. The red and green lines indicate 25% decay and growth respectively; e.g. Welsh guest bookings for Welsh properties is more than 25% lower in 2020 than it was for 2019 to date. Looking at the plot for Ireland the data show that bookings from guests within Ireland are almost 25% up on last year, while bookings from guests from guest from England are over 25% down. The points with unknown guest country show the relative relevance of the other bookings (not mapped between countries in the data set), which comprise both international guests and UK and Ireland guests for whom the guests country has not been identified. This group contributes most significantly to the Norther Ireland data.

This plot differs from the plot above in that the normalised values are now the total booking value for the year to date rather than the booking counts. The total booking value for guests from England booking English properties is up in 2020 relative to 2019 to date, despite the booking count being down. In Scotland the year to date total booking values from guests from England and Scotland are up on 2019, again despite the booking counts being down.